KETAHANAN PERBANKAN SYARIAH MENGHADAPI GUNCANGAN PASAR GLOBAL: ANALISIS RISIKO PASAR PADA PERIODE KETIDAKPASTIAN EKONOMI

Abstrak

Ketidakpastian ekonomi global yang ditandai volatilitas suku bunga dan nilai tukar menuntut evaluasi ulang atas klaim ketahanan inheren perbankan syariah. Artikel ini menganalisis ketahanan perbankan syariah terhadap guncangan pasar global melalui tiga fokus: transmisi risiko pasar terhadap profitabilitas, tantangan likuiditas akibat minimnya instrumen derivatif syariah, dan efektivitas strategi mitigasi risiko industri. Penelitian menggunakan metode studi literatur atas publikasi ilmiah, laporan stabilitas keuangan internasional, dan dokumen kebijakan periode 2021–2026, dianalisis melalui reduksi data, perbandingan temuan, dan sintesis kritis. Hasil kajian menunjukkan ketahanan perbankan syariah bersifat kondisional, bukan otomatis dari prinsip syariah. Dominasi pembiayaan murabahah (60–70% portofolio) menciptakan lock-in effect dan displaced commercial risk, diperparah mirroring behavior terhadap suku bunga konvensional dan terbatasnya instrumen lindung nilai syariah. Kesenjangan efisiensi antara Bank Umum Syariah (BOPO sehat) dan BPRS (BOPO memerlukan perhatian khusus) menuntut strategi mitigasi terdiferensiasi. Kajian merekomendasikan reorientasi portofolio ke pembiayaan bagi hasil, penguatan pasar uang antarbank syariah, adopsi early warning system berbasis AI, dan pendalaman pasar sukuk sebagai langkah menjaga ketahanan di tengah ketidakpastian ekonomi berkelanjutan.

Global economic uncertainty, characterized by interest rate and exchange rate volatility, necessitates a re-evaluation of claims regarding the inherent resilience of Islamic banking. This article analyzes the resilience of Islamic banking against global market shocks through three focal points: the transmission of market risk to profitability, liquidity challenges stemming from a scarcity of Sharia-compliant derivative instruments, and the effectiveness of industry risk mitigation strategies. The study employs a literature review methodology covering scholarly publications, international financial stability reports, and policy documents from the 2021–2026 period, analyzing the material through data reduction, comparative analysis of findings, and critical synthesis. The results indicate that the resilience of Islamic banking is conditional rather than an automatic outcome of Sharia principles. The dominance of Murabahah financing (comprising 60–70% of portfolios) creates a "lock-in effect" and "displaced commercial risk," exacerbated by mirroring behavior regarding conventional interest rates and limited Sharia-compliant hedging instruments. Disparities in efficiency between Sharia Commercial Banks (which exhibit healthy operating efficiency ratios) and Sharia Rural Banks (where ratios require close attention) necessitate differentiated mitigation strategies. The study recommends reorienting portfolios toward profit-and-loss sharing financing, strengthening the Sharia interbank money market, adopting AI-based early warning systems, and deepening the Sukuk market as measures to maintain resilience amidst ongoing economic uncertainty.